Check out the Golf KillBox DFS Podcast for full coverage of the RBC Heritage!
Week two of the post-pandemic-PGA starts Thursday, as the tour moves to Hilton Head Island, South Carolina and Harbor Town Golf Links, home to the RBC Heritage. Typically held immediately following The Masters, the shakeup caused by the 12-week shutdown has moved the RBC to the third weekend of June, and field exponentially stronger than the typically weakened one we see after the year’s first major. The field this week has four of the top fives players by the OWGR, and fans will have the rare treat of seeing players like Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas play one of the more unique tracks on the PGA rotation.
Harbor Town is a different sort of golf, playing just over 7100 yards and at a par of 71, the narrow, tree-lined dog legs can make players feel too claustrophobic to pound driver, and the strategy of lots of fairways with woods and long irons is evidenced by the past 10 winners averaging roughly 130th on tour in driving distance. This doesn’t mean that bombers can’t excel, as seen by Dustin Johnson being in the lead after three rounds in 2019, but the typical winner at Harbor Town is someone whose game is based around the accuracy necessary to first hit the short grass to be able to find the small Pete Dye greens.
In developing a strategy for betting, we will stay away from the top of the board for the most part to try to find accurate iron players that fit the mold of past winners. Hideki Matusyama (27/1) is the biggest favorite we’ll pick, as his approach game remains excellent and he flies under the radar with names like Rahm and McIlroy playing. The aforementioned Dustin Johnson (40/1) is playing poorly and was unimpressive at Colonial, but getting a price this high on DJ is such a rarity that he still gives good value with his overwhelming talent even against bad form. Matthew Fitzpatrick (55/1) is a great bet considering he ranks 132nd in driving distance but first in strokes gained: tee-to-green on the European Tour and has a proven pedigree of winning on the Euro Tour. In his second season playing the PGA Tour full-time, Fitzy will eventually explode stateside and it will be good to make hay on him before he makes his way into the general consciousness. Lastly, Scott Piercy (150/1) is a long-shot we like, as the price is so low and he led the field in greens in regulation last year at Harbor Town.
Match-ups
Poulter -140 v. Garcia (.5u)
Niemann +110 v. Snedeker (.5)
Top 25
Cauley 5/1 (.25u)
Other Outrights
Poulter 75/1 (.1u)