2020 Charles Schwab Challenge
DFS Picks, Outrights, Course Reports, Weather Impact, Podcast Notes
Course Report:
Colonial Country Club - A historic venue for the return of the PGA Tour. Colonial is a tree-lined par 70 measuring 7,209 yards. We get 144 golfers for this event which is usually invitational only. Colonial features smaller Bentgrass greens where the approach and short game win the day. You’ve got to be good around the greens and have your putter working to navigate this course. There are 7 par 4 holes between 400-450 and 3 par 3s between 190-200 yards. There are twelve dog legged holes, so accuracy is key. You want it in the short grass as you approach these smaller greens. Driving distance won’t matter much here, opening up the field to course managers and plodders. Approaches between 175-200, GIR, and driving accuracy will all be important stats to consider heading into the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Weather: Hot and clear skies. Possibly favor early morning guys just so they won’t be having to battle the heat but other than that, weather is not a factor. The winds will be pretty mild and shouldn’t affect the play at all.
DFS Take: With no golf in months, this is going to be anyone's tournament. It’s best to dip only your toe back into the DFS games. This is a week and a course where anything can happen. It’s important to go against the grain where you can. For example, Josh Teater is a late addition to the field and he has a positive SG expectation given course history. Past winners such as Kevin Na, Justin Rose, and Jordan Spieth will probably garner more ownership than they deserve.
Key Stats:
Short Game <= Probably a crapshoot but target guys that usually have a solid short game (Brian Harman anyone?)
SG: Approach (focus on 150-175, 175-200)
Driving Accuracy
Par 4 Efficiency: 400-450 scoring
Outright Picks (2u total)
Webb 25/1 (.5u)
Sungjae 30/1 (.5)
Finau 40/1 (.2)
Spieth 50/1 (.1)
Hovland 50/1 (.15)
Kisner 75/1 (.15)
English 80/1 (.15)
An: 66/1 (.15)
Hadwin 100/1 (.1)
Niemann 100/1 (.1)
Top 20:
Hadley 12/1 (.25)
Matchups
Niemann -120 (1) vs Poulter
An -105 (.5) vs Ancer
DFS One Guy
$9000+
Webb Simpson $9800
9th in the world and 7th in approach. The iron play has been so good this year, hopefully he can pick up where he left off after posting 5 top tens in 6 appearances. He won the Phoenix Open, showing that he can wrangle a course such as Colonial. At this price, he's a double fisted all in jam.
$8000-9000
Matt Fitzpatrick $8200
A two week quarantine might have him completely focused on Colonial. The 25 year old has yet to translate his European talents to the PGA Tour but don’t be surprised if Fitzy stamps his first PGA Tour win in this stacked field.
$7000-8000
Viktor Hovland $7900
The Norwegian Phenomenon already has a PGA Tour victory in his first ten appearances and two other top tens. He brings elite iron play, shooting in the 60s in 64% of his rounds this year.
$6000-$7000
Chesson Hadley $6400
Our Chesson love is unending isn’t it? The guy has made the cut in 3 of 4 appearances at Colonial. In those 3, he’s hit well under 50% of fairways. Before the break, he was targeting around 63% of fairways and was 22nd in GIR. If he can keep it on the short grass, Hadley could very well be a surprise.
Podcast Show Notes:
Rory $11,800:
Best player in the world - 6 straight top fives...
2nd in bogey avoidance
2nd tee to green
He’s on another level
At this price, I’m not sure how high the ownership goes.
Rahmbo $11,000: Probably gonna be heavily owned
I think I’m flat out fading.
Been a good season for him 6 straight top 25s
2018 and 2017 top 5 here.
Justin Thomas $10,600: 2018 winner
8th in approach and 5th tee to green
2 wins in eight starts this year.
Really like him here.
Bro Do You Even Lift Bryson: $10,100
Leads tour in driving distance
3rd off the tee, 10th tee to green
4th in overall sg total
Crushing it this season - 5th genesis, 2nd wgc mexico, 4th at bay hill.
He’s probably overpriced but maybe he's the least owned guy at 10k+, deservingly so?
Webb: $9800 - Guy has been playing elite golf - 9th in the world
7th in approach. The iron play has been so good this year
5 top tens in 6 appearances...
Koepka $9700: Seems like a slam dunk at this price. Beena rough season but a post Covid lock down run from Koepka seems like AMERICA
Dustin Johnson $9500
Im: $9,300: 2020 - 14 events - leads FedEx Cup
The consummate GRINDER
12th in SG total
A win this season at the Honda Classic
Putting has been sharp and ~30 bogey avoidance
The iron work has been superb.
LOAD UP ON IM
Morikawa $9,100: elite iron play
11 straight made cuts
Coming off a 9th at Arnold Palmer.
Rose $9000: Been a rough year for him, missed cut 3 out of last 4
Winner here 2018
Boom or bust pick for sure
Middle Tier Value $8000-$9000:
Leishman $8900
Been strong this year, 2nd at Arnold Palmer.
Won Farmers Insurance Open
Woodland $8800:
21st tee to green
Five top 10s this season
Finau $8700 seems under the radar
35th in par 4 efficiency
7th on tour tee to green
Scheffler $8400
V big fan of the Scheffler
11:13 cuts
15th at Arnold Palmer
7th in par 4 400-450
20th tee to green
Jason Day $8300
Quarantine might be what the doctor ordered
I mean at this price...why not
Couldn't finish the 2nd round at Arnold Palmer
I’m lighting 10% on fire
Fitzpatrick $8,200: 8/8 cuts this year
Quarantining for two weeks after traveling from Europe to play.
Horrible course history +6 in one appearance here so might not get a ton of ownership.
Riding Fitz here HEAVILY
Louie $8100: seems like a good price but risky, he had a shoulder injury in March.
Leads SG:Putting
Spieth $8000: 2016 winner and 2015 top five
I’m out on Spieth dawg
198 in SG:Approach
227: accuracy
Danglers $7000-$8000:
Viktor Hovland $7900: Very accurate hitter
Seems like a good course fit for him
Putting has been good
Snedes $7800: went on the pga website and he was the most search golfer recently idk
Approach game is gross
Short games always there
I just don’t see it, FADE
Berger $7700:
Was on a heater pre-corona (9th Phoenix Open, 5th pro-am, 4th Honda Classic)
Everything was on 26th putting, 29th tee to green
Hasn’t had much luck at this course. I’ll probably go a 10% Banger on Berger
Kevin Na $7600:
Defending champion, top 5 finish in 2018. Top 10 IN 2015. 4 cuts made here L4
Won Shriners this year
14th at Pebble Beach Pro Am
7th in SG: Putting. Hard to not like but he will be heavily owned. Go big or go home
Kisner $7600:
This is a Kisner course
28th in accuracy
Made 4 of 5 cuts here
Former winner
Harris English $7,500
6th bogey avoidance
23rd Par4 scoring 400-450
3 straight made cuts here.
Joel Dahmen $7500
Into it this week, was on a heater before the pause 5th at Arnold Palmer, 5th Genesis,
14th at the Pro Am.
Guy hits it straight
Matt Wolf $7,400:
Tread cautiously here, the accuracy and iron play has not been good recently. A 21st at Farmers has been the only bright spot recently.
He certainly has the tools and could have put things back together in the break.
Ben An: $7,400:
All the talent in the world except putting, with the layoff and everything its possible a blind squirrel finds a nut.
Niemann $7,400: Strong iron player
20th in approaches 175-200
Accuracy could be an issue
Cameron Smith $7300 - probably a fade 0/2 in cuts here
Ancer $7300:
2/2 in cuts here
36th tee to green
16th in bogey avoidance
Not a bad fill in player
Danny Lee $7200: Probably get some ownership due to 5/5 cuts made here
He’s had a fantastic season with 3 top tens, coming off T5 at Arnold Palmer.
Underlying stats suggest a fade is in order though.
Ryan Moore $7200: accurate guy, had some good results this year.
Furyk $7100:
Accurate and 12th in Par4 scoring 400-450
Somehow Leads GIR
Corey Connors $7100: We saw a strong -9 in 2018 here. I’m just saying.
off the tee strength. Big fan of Connors as usual
Bottom of the Barrel
Triple Sticks $6900: Probably ready for a break after going cut 59, 53, cut. It’s been pretty much all garbage but got some name value down here. Probably fading
Bello $6900:
Sandwiched in between two cuts are two top 20 performances
He’s a guy who can hunt on these par4s
Victor Perez $6900: 40th ranked golfer in the world
Don’t know a whole lot about him but only hitting 50% of fairways could be an issue
Zach Johnson $6800: will probably get some ownership due to course history. Has been okay here but I’ll fade
Cameron Champ: $6600
Worth a flier at this price.
All around game was in good form this season, putting is always an issue
Won at Safeway this year
Pat Perez: $6500
Not the worst for this price, 2/4 made cuts here.
12th in par4 efficiency 400-450
Chesson: $6400
¾ cuts made here
2 str8 cuts coming into this one but a 18th at Pebble Beach Pro Am before those.
35th in approach
56th Tee to Green
Top 50 approaches 200+
Hitting over 63% of fairways against 38 rounds. I mean that’s not bad, if he can hit 60%+ of fairways here he be in for a good showing
Putting has been garbage
There’s value here, can you hear me convincing myself?
Andy Ogletree $6,200: US Amateur Champion making pro debut
Georgia Tech product
Straight Fades: Bubba, Willet, Mickelson, Kokrak, Cameron Smith, Patrick Rodgers, Fritteli, Matt Jones